Dish Network’s Wireless Exit Strategy and Its Impact on Lease Valuation

For the past several years, Dish Network’s entry into the wireless carrier business has been a perplexing saga of big promises, sparse execution, and even bigger spectrum holdings. Now, with financial pressures mounting and key FCC restrictions nearing expiration, there are increasing indications that Dish may no longer desire to become a full-scale wireless operator. Instead, their real strategy may now be centered around getting to a point where they can sell spectrum.

A Network Built for Compliance?

Dish acquired its mobile spectrum holdings through FCC auctions and as part of the T-Mobile/Sprint merger. While the FCC imposed buildout deadlines and spectrum hoarding rules, Dish appears to have met just the minimum thresholds necessary to retain these licenses. They deployed 24,000 sites, but some analysts believe that only 10,000 of those sites actually provide Dish service to Dish subscribers. A good portion of Dish’s network traffic is handled over AT&T or T-Mobile’s networks via their MVNO. (Mobile virtual network operator agreement)

From a technical standpoint, Dish deployed a 5G network using open RAN and cloud-native infrastructure—innovative on paper, but we believe that it has been poorly marketed and thinly built. The Boost Mobile and Boost Infinite brands failed to gain serious market share, and subscriber churn remains high. The lack of marketing befitting of a national provider raises the question of whether Dish’s network has functioned more as a placeholder to meet FCC milestones rather than as a foundation for a sustainable, competitive business.

What Happens When Spectrum Restrictions Expire?

Many of Dish’s major spectrum holdings—such as the 600 MHz, AWS-4, and the 800 MHz Sprint divestiture—were locked up under use-it-or-lose-it or non-transfer clauses until 2025 or later. Those restrictions are now approaching expiration:

• 600 MHz: FCC buildout deadline in June 2025; cannot be sold until then.
• AWS-4: Requires 70% population coverage by March 2025.
• 800 MHz: DOJ-imposed resale restrictions lift in 2025 as part of the Sprint merger.

Assuming Dish meets the bare minimum coverage requirements—which it appears to be targeting, the company could be in a position to sell spectrum valued in the tens of billions of dollars starting next year. Buyers could include Verizon, AT&T, or even private equity groups looking to resell or lease the spectrum themselves. The FCC will have to approve these transfers which by no means is guaranteed. But once Dish starts selling spectrum, one has to wonder what value do they offer to their customers?

The Risk to Dish-Backed Tower and Rooftop Leases

For landowners and tower owners with Dish Wireless leases, this shift has significant implications:

1. Decommissioning Risk Rises
   If Dish sells its spectrum and exits the wireless business, its need for physical infrastructure will diminish rapidly. Any sites that were built only to meet regulatory milestones—not to support meaningful commercial traffic—could be shut down. Public reports and tower company earnings calls indicate a pullback in new-site build activity and retail expansion. We have observed little new-site-build activity for DISH in the last 6-9 months.
2. Lease Valuation Will Decline
   Leases tied to Dish are generally viewed as second-tier assets compared to Verizon, AT&T, or T-Mobile. With Dish’s long-term viability in question, third-party lease buyout firms and infrastructure investors are applying a higher discount rate to any Dish leases or avoid them altogether. A lease valued at $500,000 in today’s dollars with T-Mobile might only fetch one quarter of that or less if it’s with Dish.
3. Infrastructure Redundancy
   If Dish sells spectrum to an incumbent carrier, that buyer likely already has nearby infrastructure in place. In those cases, the Dish site becomes redundant—offering little incentive for the buyer to continue the lease unless it serves a strategic densification purpose. Especially given Dish’s unique Open-RAN network and custom built equipment.

What Should Landowners and Leaseholders Do?

If you currently lease to Dish Wireless or are approached for a Dish Wireless or Boost cell tower lease, we recommend:

• Continue Entering leases with Dish. By no means are we saying do not enter Dish or Boost leases. Revenue is revenue. Just be aware that the rent may not last.
• Don’t count your chickens… If you are a landowner that relies upon the rent, I would recommend making plans that do not depend upon Dish’s rent.
• Restrict the Equipment Rights for Dish. On the off chance that Dish ends up selling to a company or entity that wishes to operate the wireless network rather than turn off the sites, you do not want the new entity to have liberal rights to expand the equipment.
• Making Sure that Dish Must Remove Equipment if they terminate the lease. You don’t want to be stuck with Dish equipment. (Look up Metricom for a history lesson on why).
• Being skeptical of lease buyout offers from firms discounting Dish leases. While it may seem that your best option is to sell a lease before it becomes worthless, the reality is that the value that buyout companies are paying likely may be less than what you would receive before the lease is terminated. And once you give up rights to the Dish lease, the buyer can then replace them in the future with another wireless carrier with no additional revenue to you.
• Make sure to stay on top of your reimbursements – for both taxes and utilities.  If Dish ends up going bankrupt, they may be hard to collect.
• Consulting experts (like Steel in the Air) before selling or renegotiating a Dish or Boost lease.

Conclusion: Be Vigilant in the Face of Transition

Dish’s wireless ambitions may eventually come to an end—not with a bang, but with a quiet transfer of spectrum assets to other carriers. For landowners, this raises real concerns about the long-term security and value of Dish-related leases. Now more than ever, it’s important to have a partner who understands the shifting wireless landscape and can help you navigate it. While there may not be much you can do affirmatively to keep a DISH lease, you can make bad decisions

At Steel in the Air, we’ve tracked Dish’s spectrum and deployment strategy for nearly a decade. We hope we are wrong about Dish. Either way, if you have questions about how this affects your lease—or whether your site is at risk—reach out to us for a free consultation.

This article reflects the opinions and analysis of Steel in the Air, Inc. based on publicly available information and industry expertise. It is not intended to assert any unlawful or unethical conduct by Dish Network or its affiliates.